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September 27, 2012 • Written by Jonathan Spontarelli

Eye on the Races – September 27, 2012

New Polling and Electoral Math Show Uphill Climb for Governor Mitt Romney

Eye on the Races

The 2012 electoral map continues to take shape and with 40 days until the election, both campaigns are working hard in swing states to gain as much ground as possible. A slew of polls have come out over the past couple of days that have painted a decidedly grim picture for Governor Romney’s chances of winning in November.

A Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times poll of three swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) shows President Obama has crossed the 50 percent threshold in all three states. Obama leads Romney 53 percent to 44 percent in Florida, 53 percent to 43 percent in Ohio, and 54 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. Similarly, a Washington Post poll shows the President breaking the 50 percent mark leading the race in Florida 51 percent to 47 percent and Ohio 52 percent to 44 percent. (The Washington Post and ABC News have also moved the state of Ohio from toss-up to leans Obama)

Much has been made over the past week about the larger sample size of democrats in a number of polls which could potentially affect results. (See: here, here, and here) A look at independents responses in these polls shows a much tighter race for the coveted votes of those not identifying with any particular base. Rasmussen, Gallup, Survey USA, and Pew polls all show Gov. Romney with either a slight advantage or tie with President Obama among independents.

While polling numbers are a gauge of where the race currently stands, only one number matters on election day; 270. With current polling showing Ohio in President Obama’s column, the Washington Post and ABC News project the President has 255 electoral votes either safely on his side, or leaning his way; while Gov. Romney has only 196. If the President were to win either Florida, or a combination of two or more of the remaining swing states, he would reach the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to win reelection. No republican has ever won the presidency without also winning the state of Ohio, and if Gov. Romney were to lose there, he would likely have to sweep all remaining swing states to have a chance.

Other notes from the trail:

Rep. David Rivera (R-FL) is being accused by Justin Sternad for secretly running Sternad’s unsuccessful campaign during the democratic primary election for the seat currently held by Rivera. Among the accusations are claims that Rivera steered unreported money to Sternad to run against Joe Garcia who previously lost to Rivera in the general election.
According to a new Washington Post poll, Senator Sherrod Brown (D) maintains a comfortable lead over State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) for the Ohio Senate seat currently held by Brown. Brown leads among registered voters 51 percent to 39 percent and 53 percent to 41 percent among likely voters.
Rep. Todd Akin will definitely appear on the ballot for the Missouri Senate seat after the passing of a September 25 deadline to withdraw from the race. Akin has struggled to raise money since his controversial remarks about “legitimate rape”; however, in recent days a number of conservatives have come to his aid including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and possibly South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint.