March 16, 2012 •
With a dose fun and healthy skepticism, Lobby Comply takes a look into the future:
This week instead of one site, we are highlighting a host of sites. Every presidential election brings with it the desire to predict an outcome. Here are the forecasts of a few pundits (and otherwise):
For the “tried and true”
If you like a voice of experience, take a look at James Zogby’s “Predicting the Presidential Election: 2012” in the Huffington Post. His article presents the finding of American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the outcome of every election from 1984 through 2008. His vote is on Obama.
U.S. News and World Report’s Paul Bedard and Lauren Fox also talk about Lichtman in “Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012.”
Forbes gives us “Yahoo’s Signal Predicts Presidential Election: Obama Over Romney” by Tomio Geron. Yahoo uses a system called The Signal, which claims to be correct 88% of the time, with a 3% margin of error.
For the social media aficionados
USA Today published “Can social media predict election outcomes?” by Scott Martin and Jon Swartz, who take a look at Facebook and Twitter conversations as election indicators.
The Meltwater Group gives us this word cloud showing us how much buzz the candidates are generating in social media from “We the People – Social Media Voices on Election 2012.”
PRMarketing.com posted “Predicting the 2012 President” by James Rognon, where he predicts Lady Gaga would win if we look solely at social media connections.
For the betting type of person
There is the “2012 United States Presidential Election Betting Odds” on politicalbettingodds.com.
Electoralmap.net’s 2012 Electoral Map Forecast says it uses “data from the Intrade prediction market, where individuals place wagers on the outcome of the 2012 Presidential election in each state.”
Who knows, perhaps someday a super-computer will come along with a super algorithm that can – with extreme accuracy – predict the outcome of an upcoming election and we could dispense with all of the campaign ad spending and debates, etc. Until that time, enjoy these sites as they cast their predictions.
Have a wonderful weekend!