May 17, 2012 •
GOP nominee soon to be official; April fundraising reports due this week.
As the national party conventions draw nearer, the race to obtain a majority of the 2286 delegates available to secure the GOP nomination appears to be well within the grasp of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Following Tuesday’s primary wins in Nebraska and Oregon, the Associated Press and NBC News project Gov. Romney now has 989 of the 1144 delegates needed to become the Republican nominee for President. While most of Gov. Romney’s competitors have suspended their campaigns, (Congressman Ron Paul remains in the race) the governor must still obtain the necessary delegates in order to be officially nominated at the GOP convention in Tampa Bay, Florida, August 27-30.
Romney can potentially pick up 81 proportionally allocated delegates in the next two primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky on May 22. If he then wins the “winner-take-all” Texas primary, and its 155 delegates, on May 29, Romney will assuredly lock up the nomination heading into the summer. The Washington Post has an excellent, interactive delegate tracker and primer to help make sense of the GOP primary process.
As the Republican nominee, donors are certain to coalesce around Romney which he will need in order to mount a formidable campaign. April fundraising reports are due to the Federal Election Commission on May 20th.
President Obama’s campaign has already begun to leak numbers announcing that it raised $43.6 million total in April for the campaign, the Democratic National Committee and other committees such as Organizing for America, a project of the DNC founded in January 2009. While the President’s numbers are lower than the $45 million raised in February and $53 million in March, President Obama still maintains a large overall fundraising advantage over Gov. Romney.
Gov. Romney’s campaign also leaked fundraising numbers today ahead of Friday’s deadline (campaigns are required to submit reports prior to the deadline if the due date falls on a weekend or holiday). The Romney campaign, along with the Republican National Committee and other committees, raised $40.1 million in April, just $3.5 million behind the President’s campaign.
If these fundraising numbers are any indication, we’ve only just begun.
May 16, 2012 •
and other election law and redistricting news
NCSL is now offering a searchable database of election reform legislation from the states in one convenient location on their website: “Election Reform Legislation Online on NCSL Website”
“Brewer signs elections bill, vetoes 6 bills” by Mary JO Pitzl in the Tucson Citizen.
Alabama: “Alabama Legislature holding final day of session” by The Associated Press in the News Courier. According to the article, “Legislative leaders have asked the governor to call a special session starting Thursday to draw new legislative districts.”
Alaska: “Redistricting board unveils changes made in Southeast” by Becky Bohrer in the Anchorage Daily News.
Kansas: “Republicans at war with each other over redistricting” by Scott Rothschild in the Lawrence Journal World.
Minnesota: “$628K sought for redistricting costs in Minn.” by Martiga Lohn (Associated Press) in the Crookston Times.
May 10, 2012 •
President Obama Comes Out in Support of Same-Sex Marriage
During an interview aired last night with ABC News Robin Roberts President Barack Obama expressed his personal support for same-sex marriage. The news broke when ABC news leaked portions of the interview yesterday afternoon.
“At a certain point I’ve just concluded that for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same sex couples should be able to get married.” Obama told Roberts in the interview.
The admission comes after Vice President Joe Biden set off a media firestorm with comments he made during an interview with David Gregory on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday. Additionally, on Tuesday, North Carolina voters approved a constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union between a man and a woman.
While the President has personally come out in support of same-sex marriage, he told Roberts that he still believes the issue should be decided by the states and not at the federal level. Sources told the Associated Press the President was under increasing pressure from supporters and donors who threatened to withhold funds from the pro-Obama Super PAC, Priorities USA, without clarification from the President of his positions on same-sex marriage.
Following the announcement, Republican Party Presidential candidate Mitt Romney stated to KOCO in Oklahoma City “I believe marriage is a relationship between a man and a woman.”
While the issue will likely not be heavily debated in the coming months of the general election, the announcement is historic as it is the first time a sitting president or presidential nominee from either major political party has come out in support of same-sex marriage.
May 9, 2012 •
Runoff scheduled for July
North Carolina citizens voted in the 2012 primary last night, but some races did not yield a true winner. According to state law, if no candidate receives 40% of the vote in a primary, a second primary (or runoff) election is needed.
Over 10 races, including republican races for Lieutenant Governor and three U.S. House seats, will be headed to a runoff election.
Thanks to a new law passed by the North Carolina General Assembly last year, the primary will be held 10 weeks following the first primary, rather than the usual seven weeks. The new law took effect, because at least one of the races headed to a runoff was a U.S. Congress seat.
The runoff election will take place on July 17, 2012.
May 8, 2012 •
For new six-year term
Michael Sullivan, the Director of the Massachusetts Office of Campaign and Political Finance, has been reappointed for another six-year term to the agency.
According to the Boston Herald, the decision was unanimous to reappoint Sullivan, who has been the director for almost 18 years.
For full news coverage, read:
“Michael Sullivan reappointed as OCPF chief” by Gintautas Dumcius in the Boston Herald.
A thank you goes to Jim Sedor, Editor of News You Can Use, for alerting us to this news.
April 24, 2012 •
Today we have items from seven states:
“Redistricting takes some of the ‘swing’ out of House fights” by Susan Davis in USA Today.
Alaska: “It may be too late for another legislative redistricting plan” by Becky Bohrer in the Anchorage Daily News.
Arizona: “State Supreme Court reaffirms that governor shouldn’t have fired redistricting chair” by Howard Fischer in the East Valley Tribune.
Kansas: “Kobach warns of redistricting crisis” by John Hanna (Associated Press) in the Lawrence Journal-World.
Mississippi: “Mississippi lawmakers tackle redistricting” by Phil West in The Commercial Appeal.
Pennsylvania: “Pennsylvania’s new map pits incumbent Democrats in primary” by Sean Lengell in The Washington Times.
Vermont: “Vermont Senate endorses redistricting plans” by Nancy Remsen in the Burlington Free Press.
Wyoming: “State: Redistricting plaintiffs have no standing to file suit” by Trevor Brown in the Wyoming Tribune Eagle.
April 3, 2012 •
Dates set to fill vacated seat
A special election will be held on July 24, 2012 to fill the empty seat in House District 68. Thad Viers recently vacated the seat after being charged with harassing his ex-girlfriend.
The primary election will be held June 5, 2012. If necessary, a primary runoff will be held on June 19, 2012.
Photo of the South Carolina State House by Nikopoley on Wikipedia.
March 30, 2012 •
Here is a website that lets you learn more about the presidential campaigns.
Back in September 2010, we highlighted a website called The Museum of the Moving Image: The Living Room Candidate. It featured a history of presidential campaign television commercials since the time of President Dwight Eisenhower.
In honor of the 2012 presidential race, I’ve found another great site with even more historical information about presidential campaigns. Our Highlighted Site of the Week is 4President.org.
According to their site: “Learn about each election by downloading a candidates issues brochure, reading campaign announcement and acceptance speeches, viewing campaign logos, and analyzing popular vote and electoral college data.”
Starting with the Kennedy/Nixon race in 1960, 4President.org offers speeches from the candidates announcing their candidacy for president and their acceptance speeches for their party’s nomination at the conventions. You can view the campaign buttons, bumper stickers, and even television advertisements. For the campaigns from 1996 forward, you can even see their old campaign websites!
Have fun with this site and have a beautiful weekend.
March 23, 2012 •
Here are highlights from the latest edition of News You Can Use:
From the States and Municipalities:
State and Federal Communications produces a weekly summary of national news, offering more than 80 articles per week focused on ethics, lobbying, and campaign finance.
News You Can Use is a news service provided at no charge only to clients of our online Executive Source Guides, or ALERTS™ consulting clients.
March 22, 2012 •
Special election to be called
Thad Viers announced his resignation as State Representative for House District 68. The announcement came after Mr. Viers was charged with harassing his ex-girlfriend. She told investigators he continued to call, text and email for more than five months after they broke up, according to a Myrtle Beach police report.
Due to the vacancy, a special election will be held following the writ of election to be issued by the speaker of the house. There is currently an unrelated special election scheduled for Senate District 41 on July 17, 2012.
Photo of Thad Viers courtesy of the South Carolina House of Representatives website.
March 22, 2012 •
Derrick Smith, an Illinois lawmaker who has been arrested on federal bribery charges, has won the Democratic primary for the state House race in the fall.
“Indicted Illinois House member wins Dem nomination” by John O’Connor (Associated Press) in The State Journal-Register.
“Chicago lawmaker charged in bribe case wins primary” by Andrew Stern (Reuters) in the Chicago Tribune.
ᔥ Thanks go to Jim Sedor, Editor of News You Can Use, for finding this article.
March 16, 2012 •
With a dose fun and healthy skepticism, Lobby Comply takes a look into the future:
This week instead of one site, we are highlighting a host of sites. Every presidential election brings with it the desire to predict an outcome. Here are the forecasts of a few pundits (and otherwise):
For the “tried and true”
If you like a voice of experience, take a look at James Zogby’s “Predicting the Presidential Election: 2012” in the Huffington Post. His article presents the finding of American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the outcome of every election from 1984 through 2008. His vote is on Obama.
U.S. News and World Report’s Paul Bedard and Lauren Fox also talk about Lichtman in “Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012.”
Forbes gives us “Yahoo’s Signal Predicts Presidential Election: Obama Over Romney” by Tomio Geron. Yahoo uses a system called The Signal, which claims to be correct 88% of the time, with a 3% margin of error.
For the social media aficionados
USA Today published “Can social media predict election outcomes?” by Scott Martin and Jon Swartz, who take a look at Facebook and Twitter conversations as election indicators.
The Meltwater Group gives us this word cloud showing us how much buzz the candidates are generating in social media from “We the People – Social Media Voices on Election 2012.”
PRMarketing.com posted “Predicting the 2012 President” by James Rognon, where he predicts Lady Gaga would win if we look solely at social media connections.
For the betting type of person
There is the “2012 United States Presidential Election Betting Odds” on politicalbettingodds.com.
Electoralmap.net’s 2012 Electoral Map Forecast says it uses “data from the Intrade prediction market, where individuals place wagers on the outcome of the 2012 Presidential election in each state.”
Who knows, perhaps someday a super-computer will come along with a super algorithm that can – with extreme accuracy – predict the outcome of an upcoming election and we could dispense with all of the campaign ad spending and debates, etc. Until that time, enjoy these sites as they cast their predictions.
Have a wonderful weekend!
March 9, 2012 •
Keeping a tally of the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination in the 2012 presidential campaign.
With all of the attention placed on the Republican primaries and caucuses – especially with Super Tuesday happening this week – our Highlighted Site of the Week is a trio of delegate tracker sites.
Politico has a great Delegate Tracker page that can help you make sense of where each of the candidates stands in gaining the biggest portion of the 2,286 delegates needed to win the nomination at the GOP National Convention.
I personally like the GOP Delegate Tracker on The Wall Street Journal’s Election 2012 site. It has a bar graph with the candidates, an interactive map of the states, and even an interactive timeline.
There is, of course, always The New York Times. They have their Republican Delegate Count page and their State-by-State Primary Results page. As part of the NYTimes Election 2012 online resources, you can easily navigate to reviews of the debates and summaries of campaign finance information for each candidate.
Video courtesy of The Associated Press.
Have a great weekend everyone!
March 6, 2012 •
Here is a look at Super Tuesday through the lens of Facebook and Twitter:
“Can social media predict election outcomes?” by Jon Swartz in USA Today.
“Twitter and The Countdown To Super Tuesday” by Shea Bennett on All Twitter.
“Romney to Win Republican Nomination, Facebook Says” by Kate Knibbs in Mobiledia.
“Facebook users not talking about Rick Santorum (infographic)” by Emil Protalinski on ZDNet.
“Will Romney’s Facebook fans help win Super Tuesday?” by Athima Chansanchai on MSNBC’s Digital Life.
“Santorum’s Facebook Fans Silent Before Super Tuesday” by Jennifer Moire on All Facebook.
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